Fuzzy Optimization Neural Network Approach for Ice Forecast in the Inner Mongolia Reach of the Yellow River/Approche d'Optimisation Floue de Réseau de Neurones pour la Prévision de la Glace Dans le Tronçon de Mongolie Intérieure du Fleuve Jaune     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2)

Abstract

In ice forecasting, a key problem is the forecast of freeze-up and break-up dates. Ice-water mechanics and the principle of heat-exchange were mainly adopted in previous research. However, the mathematical models in these studies are complex and many parameters are required in relation to upstream and/or downstream gauging stations. Moreover, too many assumptions or simplifications for these parameters and constraints directly lead to low accuracy of the models and limitations as to their practical applications. This paper develops a fuzzy optimization neural network approach for the forecast of freeze-up date and break-up date. The Inner Mongolia reach lies in the top north of the Yellow River, China. Almost every year ice floods occur because of its special geographical location, hydrometeorological conditions and river course characteristics. Therefore, it is of particular importance for ice flood prevention to forecast freeze-up date and break-up date accurately. A case study in this region shows that the proposed methodology may allow obtaining useful results.  相似文献   

Enhanced identification of a hydrologic model using streamflow and satellite water storage data: A multicriteria sensitivity analysis and optimization approach   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Fuad Yassin  Saman Razavi  Howard Wheater  Gonzalo Sapriza‐Azuri  Bruce Davison  Alain Pietroniro 《水文研究》2017,31(19):3320-3333

Hydrologic model development and calibration have continued in most cases to focus only on accurately reproducing streamflows. However, complex models, for example, the so‐called physically based models, possess large degrees of freedom that, if not constrained properly, may lead to poor model performance when used for prediction. We argue that constraining a model to represent streamflow, which is an integrated resultant of many factors across the watershed, is necessary but by no means sufficient to develop a high‐fidelity model. To address this problem, we develop a framework to utilize the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment's (GRACE) total water storage anomaly data as a supplement to streamflows for model calibration, in a multiobjective setting. The VARS method (Variogram Analysis of Response Surfaces) for global sensitivity analysis is used to understand the model behaviour with respect to streamflow and GRACE data, and the BORG multiobjective optimization method is applied for model calibration. Two subbasins of the Saskatchewan River Basin in Western Canada are used as a case study. Results show that the developed framework is superior to the conventional approach of calibration only to streamflows, even when multiple streamflow‐based error functions are simultaneously minimized. It is shown that a range of (possibly false) system trajectories in state variable space can lead to similar (acceptable) model responses. This observation has significant implications for land‐surface and hydrologic model development and, if not addressed properly, may undermine the credibility of the model in prediction. The framework effectively constrains the model behaviour (by constraining posterior parameter space) and results in more credible representation of hydrology across the watershed.  相似文献   

Are modern metaheuristics successful in calibrating simple conceptual rainfall–runoff models?     

Adam P. Piotrowski  Maciej J. Napiorkowski  Jaroslaw J. Napiorkowski  Marzena Osuch  Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(4):606-625

In recent years sampling approaches have been used more widely than optimization algorithms to find parameters of conceptual rainfall–runoff models, but the difficulty of calibration of such models remains in dispute. The problem of finding a set of optimal parameters for conceptual rainfall–runoff models is interpreted differently in various studies, ranging from simple to relatively complex and difficult. In many papers, it is claimed that novel calibration approaches, so-called metaheuristics, outperform the older ones when applied to this task, but contradictory opinions are also plentiful. The present study aims at calibration of two simple lumped conceptual hydrological models, HBV and GR4J, by means of a large number of metaheuristic algorithms. The tests are performed on four catchments located in regions with relatively similar climatic conditions, but on different continents. The comparison shows that, although parameters found may somehow differ, the performance criteria achieved with simple lumped models calibrated by various metaheuristics are very similar and differences are insignificant from the hydrological point of view. However, occasionally some algorithms find slightly better solutions than those found by the vast majority of methods. This means that the problem of calibration of simple lumped HBV or GR4J models may be deceptive from the optimization perspective, as the vast majority of algorithms that follow a common evolutionary principle of survival of the fittest lead to sub-optimal solutions.  相似文献   

高拱坝施工初-中期导流风险模型及应用          下载免费PDF全文

张超  胡志根 《水科学进展》2019,30(1):102-111

面向工程设计阶段,采用高拱坝施工动态仿真技术获取施工初-中期挡水度汛面貌数据,综合考虑水文、水力随机性因素,构建高拱坝施工初-中期导流风险模型,提出采用Monte Carlo方法耦合挡水度汛面貌数据和主要随机因素进行风险模型求解的方法。基于风险分析原理提出了导流洞设计的风险判别方法,给出导流洞尺寸设计优化的数学模型和具体步骤。通过金沙江上游某高拱坝工程案例分析的结果表明:所提风险模型及求解方法是适用的、有效的,该模型能够得到整个施工初-中期导流风险率,较为客观地反映高拱坝施工中期度汛可能存在的两种挡水情况,克服了初期导流风险模型的局限性;施工中期导流风险率随导流洞尺寸增大而减小,导流洞尺寸设计的可行方案集存在界限,即优化方案。研究成果可为高拱坝施工导流的风险决策和设计优化提供理论支撑。  相似文献   

Application of PSO-LIBSVM in Recognition of Potassium Salt Deposits     

Fuqiang Yang  Kegui Chen  Changbing Huang  Yuanyuan Chen  Jin Li  Xiaolin Ma 《地球科学进展》2019,34(7):757-764

The shortage of potassium salt seriously restricts the development of China's agriculture. Increasing the exploration and development of potash will help improve the self-sufficiency of potassium in China. With rich potassium salt resources, Sichuan basin is one of the most important research areas for potash exploration and development in China. Polyhalite is an important solid potassium salt mineral in Sichuan basin, often intercalated in rock minerals such as anhydrite, rock salt and dolomite. Aiming at the problem that conventional log interpretation methods are difficult to accurately identify polyhalites, this paper proposed a new Support Vector Machine (SVM) recognition method based on Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to classify polyhalites in Sichuan basin. Based on particle swarm optimization and support vector machine theory, combined with logging interpretation theory, the effective data sensitive to polyhalite logging response were selected as input samples to generate training sets and test sets randomly. The Radial Basis Function (RBF) parameters were optimized by particle swarm optimization, and the classification and prediction model of polyhalite was established. Compared with mud logging results, the recognition accuracy of SVM model based on particle swarm optimization reached 97.5758%, which is obviously better than that of SVM model optimized by cross validation method in recognition accuracy and speed. The results show that the model has broad application prospects in potash exploration in Sichuan basin.  相似文献   

卫星海洋遥感数据的无损压缩及解压算法     

付东洋  李宇隆  侯骏雄  肖志强 《海洋技术学报》2012,31(2):45-48

在分析卫星海洋遥感单轨三级数据产品特征的基础上,针对游程编码无损压缩算法特征,提出了优化游程编码压缩算法,运用该算法实现了海洋遥感三级数据产品的无损压缩,并与流行的WinRAR压缩软件进行了比较测试,结果表明上述算法对海洋遥感数据均有较高的压缩率,优化游程编码压缩算法在空间复杂度及时间复杂度上均有明显的比较优势,可极大节约海洋遥感数据的存储与共享发布空间。  相似文献   

Strain and culture medium optimization for production enhancement of prodiginines from marine-derived Streptomyces sp. GQQ-10     

Xueping Li  Guojian Zhang  Tianjiao Zhu  Dehai Li  Qianqun Gu 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2012,11(3):361-365

A mutant (GQQ-M6) of a Sponge-Derived streptomyces sp. GQQ-10 obtained by UV-induced mutation was used for producing prodiginines (PGs). Single factor experiments and orthogonal array design (OAD) methods were employed for medium optimization. In the single factor method, the effects of soluble starch, glucose, soybean flour, yeast extract and sodium acetate on PGs production were investigated individually. In the subsequent OAD experiments, the concentrations of these 5 key nutritional components combined with salinity were further adjusted. The mutant strain GQQ-M6 gave a 2.2-fold higher PGs production than that of the parent strain; OAD experiments offered a PGs yield of 61mg L-1, which was 10 times higher than that of the initial GQQ-10 strain under the original cultivation mode.  相似文献   

区域公共服务设施优化配置方法研究——以大连市甘井子区兴华街道小学配置为例     

韩增林  杜鹏  王利  于洋  赵东霞  丛迎雪  任启龙 《地理科学》2014,34(7):803-809

利用GIS网络分析技术可真实模拟可达性,实现设施优化布局。以大连市甘井子区兴华街道小学配置为例研究,在借鉴以往研究成果基础上,结合公安部门统计数据,通过实地调研,兼顾流动人口,利用GIS技术构建网络分析数据集,采用最小化阻抗模型和最大化覆盖范围模型比较研究,确定研究区小学配置方案。结论表明,基于最大覆盖范围原则的小学选址更合理。保持区域原有的兴华小学、松江路小学、千山路小学、华中小学和芙蓉小学5 所小学在原区位继续运行,在2 号和45号点位再配置2所小学,较为合理。  相似文献   

基于SVM的海底声纳图像底质识别*     

熊明宽  吴自银  李守军  罗孝文  唐秋华 《海洋通报》2012,31(4):409-414

对海底底质声纳图像分割,提取单元特征向量进行主成份分析,选取均值、标准差、对比度、相关系数、能量及同质性作为训练特征向量,优化支持向量机(SVM)参数.利用多分类 SVM 对砂、礁石、泥进行训练,有效、快速地分离出了3种底质类型,测试精度高于80%,表明该方法可有效用于海底底质声纳图像的识别和分类.  相似文献   

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王建  张献州  张勇  李伟 《大地测量与地球动力学》2012,32(4):148-151

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